China Travel is growing
"CHINA TRAVEL"
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China is expected to be the world's fastest-growing market for air travel as the world's airlines look for global growth in passenger traffic of 6 percent annually over the next four years, the trade association said Wednesday.
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"The China travel growth will help the industry continue its recovery from the 2001 terror attacks on the United States and the SARS epidemic, the International Air Transport Association in its year-end report."
But it has a long way to go to erase the record losses of the past four years that total US$35 billion, said IATA Director-General Giovanni Bisignani.
"It looks like we will finish 2004 with the strongest traffic rebound that the industry has seen since the 1991 recovery from the effects of the Gulf War," said Bisignani.
The industry carried 1.8 billion passengers this year, up 14 percent, he told reporters. Nonetheless, the world's airlines are still expected to post combined losses of nearly US$5 billion dollars for 2004.
Economic growth and deregulation are expected to keep the number of passengers rising along with China travel, IATA said.
"We are not quite forecasting a return to the buoyant 1990s trend but, at an average growth rate of 6 percent, it is not that far off," it said, noting that passenger traffic grew by an average 6.5 percent a year between 1990 and 2000.
The China travel air passenger market, which numbered 21.9 million people in 2003, is forecast to turn in an average annual growth of 12.5 percent until 2008, the report said.
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"China travel will lead the global economic expansion for the foreseeable future, which will generate significant long-haul business traffic to and from North America," IATA said.
Growth in air travel between North America and India is also expected to exceed 10 percent, it said.
Three former Soviet Bloc countries would be among the five fastest-growing passenger markets during the period _ Poland at 5 percent, Hungary at 9.6 percent and the Czech Republic at 9.1 percent, just behind fourth place United Arab Emirates at 9.3 percent, IATA said.
The industry continues to suffer from high fuel prices, but could break even in 2005 if oil prices drop to an average of US$36 a barrel, it said.
Crude oil prices have been around US$40 a barrel for much of this year _ although they reached a high of US$55.17 in October.
IATA economist Brian Pearce said a US$34-a-barrel average would let the industry earn a US$1.2 billion profit in 2005....
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