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Airline international ticket is good for big airlines


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They're not the friendliest skies U.S. carriers have ever seen. And they've discovered that war, disease or some other calamity can darken them quickly.

But for the six largest U.S. carriers, international markets are proving less turbulent and more promising _ for now _ than their own back yard.

AIRLINE INTERNATIONAL TICKET

Simply put, they're losing money by the billions on flights within the United States. But when their planes leave U.S. airspace, the picture turns profitable.

"The big network carriers are increasingly focused on international opportunities," said Karan Bhatia, assistant secretary for aviation and international affairs at the Federal Aviation Administration. "They're expanding services abroad. International services ... represent a continuing area of opportunity for them."

At least for now. Some of the same dynamics that have turned their domestic operations into huge money losers could play out internationally as well.

The big airlines complain that too many seats are chasing too few passengers in the United States. Fares don't cover the costs of providing the service. Add to that the rising power of low-cost airlines like Southwest and JetBlue, and you have a potent money-losing combination.

AIRLINE INTERNATIONAL TICKET

It all changes beyond our borders. There, airlines enjoy some pricing power partly because of limits on competition and significant barriers to the entry of new players. Low-fare carriers aren't on the radar screen.

The outlook for international business and leisure travel is good, carriers say. It's fueled in large part by the increasing globalization of business, the rise of a middle class in nations such as India and still-strong leisure travel.

International traffic, measured in miles flown by paying passengers, rose 14 percent in the 12 months ended Sept. 30. That's nearly double the domestic growth.

At United Airlines, where losses landed what was once the world's largest carrier in bankruptcy court, it's a straightforward analysis:

AIRLINE INTERNATIONAL TICKET

"There is more profit potential in the current environment internationally than domestically," said Graham Atkinson, senior vice president of worldwide sales and alliances at United Airlines.

Only about a third of United's passenger revenue comes from international operations. It's about the same at Northwest, American and Continental. At Delta, it's only 19 percent

But the major airlines are putting all their growth into international flying this year while domestic flying remains flat. AIRLINE INTERNATIONAL TICKET

"It's partly a function of people's willingness to pay (more)," Atkinson said of the strength of international business. "But it's also a function of supply and demand."

Not even the weak U.S. dollar is seen as a major drag on the near-term growth prospects.

It makes travel originating in this nation more expensive but lowers the cost of travel to the United States, said Don Casey, American Airlines' managing director of international planning.

AIRLINE INTERNATIONAL TICKET

"From our perspective, if we replace U.S. originating traffic with foreign, it does not make much difference to us," Casey said. "In spite of the declining dollar, traffic continues to be OK."

United expects a good summer for people coming to the United States, said Atkinson. And tour operators are saying demand for leisure travel from here to Europe is still strong, he said.

Historically, competition in international markets has been restricted by bilateral agreements between nations. They regulate the markets served, the number of carriers allowed to serve each market and the frequency of flights.

AIRLINE INTERNATIONAL TICKET

"Internationally, competition is not so fierce," said Michael Allen, co-founder and principal of the BACK Aviation Solutions consulting firm. "The system is designed for a limited number of players." More airlines are getting to play, though.

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The United States is especially keen to negotiate "open skies" pacts with other nations. They eliminate restrictions on how often carriers can fly between nations, the kind of aircraft they can use and the prices they can charge.

AIRLINE INTERNATIONAL TICKET

Under open skies pacts, a carrier from either country can fly from any city in either country to any city in the other country.

The United States has open sky agreements with 67 nations, including one struck in January with India, the world's second-most-populous nation. Some 2 million travelers now fly between here and India annually.

AIRLINE INTERNATIONAL TICKET

In Europe, the United States is trying to negotiate an open skies deal that would include all members of the European Union. The nation now has such deals with 15 of the 25 E.U. member countries.

"It would be a big deal," Bhatia said. "Open skies agreements result in more service, more passengers and lower prices."

China will be getting a lot more service from U.S. carriers.

The U.S.-China aviation pact signed last July is not an open skies agreement. But it will increase weekly U.S.-China flights for each country's carriers from 54 to 249 over six years. Of the 195 new flights, 111 will be cargo-only flights; 84, passenger.

AIRLINE INTERNATIONAL TICKET

"Everyone has been fighting like crazy to get routes to China," said John Pincavage of the airline consulting firm Pincavage & Associates in Westport, Conn. "It's a heavy business market. And the fares are great. You have people on the planes for a long time. So you can work on building brand loyalty."

China is the fastest-growing international passenger market, according to the International Air Transport Association, with annual growth topping 12 percent over the next several years.

AIRLINE INTERNATIONAL TICKET

Meanwhile, air cargo shipments between the nation and China are soaring.

In 2004, their value totaled $51.5 billion, with China exports to the United States accounting for about 80 percent of the trade, according to the World Institute for Strategic Economic Research in Holyoke, Mass. That was up from $26.1 billion in 2002.

For decades, United and Northwest were the only U.S. passenger airlines allowed to fly to China.

AIRLINE INTERNATIONAL TICKET

Now, Continental and American will join them in serving the Middle Kingdom. Continental will fly to Beijing from Newark. American will fly to Shanghai from Chicago.

Northwest has growth opportunities, too. It can add six all-cargo flights a week between the U.S. and Shanghai. It now has 21 flights a week between Tokyo and mainland China; it has 70 nonstop flights a week from eight U.S. cities _ including the Twin Cities _ and Tokyo. Last October, Northwest began daily passenger service between Detroit and Guangzhou (Canton) via Tokyo.

For Northwest, the key to Asia remains Japan, where Tokyo's Narita airport serves as base for its Pacific operations.

AIRLINE INTERNATIONAL TICKET

"Japan's GDP is more than twice that of China," said Laura Liu, Northwest's vice president for international sales and marketing. "And GDP loosely predicts the propensity to travel. But China represents a growing number of destinations on our network in Asia. We will be as competitive in China as we are in all the other countries we are in Asia."

In the domestic market, bankrupt and otherwise struggling carriers are reluctant to raise fares, fearing it'll cost them passengers. But internationally, it's a different story.

AIRLINE INTERNATIONAL TICKET

"Competitors in the international market typically have the same motivation we have in terms of recovering some of the increase in fuel costs," Casey said.

Airlines also find more travelers on marathon flights are inclined to spring for higher-fare tickets that get them perks such as seats that essentially turn into beds.

"The longer the trip, the more critical it is to be comfortable throughout your entire trip," Northwest's Laura Liu said.

Comfort comes at a price: Booking a business class seat on a flight to Amsterdam from the Twin Cities a month out will cost you more than $7,400; it's about $800 back in coach.

AIRLINE INTERNATIONAL TICKET

In the international arena, low-fare carriers have also not been the threat they've been domestically. Up to this point, they've focused on flying within the United States, Europe and Asia, giving international carriers something of a safety zone.

Inevitably, though, low-fare carriers will make a big push internationally, predicts Darryl Jenkins, a visiting professor at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Daytona Beach, Fla., and an airline industry consultant.

In the next two to three years, there may be a burst of new low-cost carriers providing trans-Atlantic service, he said.

AIRLINE INTERNATIONAL TICKET

Already, Virgin Atlantic has been reducing fares across the Atlantic, Pincavage said.

Strong low-fare competition will come first to the Atlantic, followed by Latin America and the Pacific, he expects.

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"They can't escape," Pincavage said of the mainline carriers battling low-fare carriers on international routes.

To augment their own international networks, carriers are increasingly emphasizing alliances that allow them to treat foreign carriers' networks as extensions of their own.

There are three big ones: One world, the Star Alliance and Sky Team, whose members include Northwest.

AIRLINE INTERNATIONAL TICKET

More and more, international competition will not be between individual carriers but between their alliances, said American's Casey. That's because with the globalization of business, travelers wants one carrier _ or its allies _ to get them to and from their destinations.

"Frequent fliers tell us their primary concern is network," Casey said. Customers also like alliances because they maximize opportunities to earn and burn reward miles.

Some wonks have envisioned a future in which surviving old-line carriers abandon their domestic networks. Atkinson doesn't.

"The key is our network in the U.S.," he said.

What the big network carriers want to retain is the ability to take someone from, say, Peoria, Ill., to Paris or Bemidji, Minn., to Beijing.

"We need to have strong domestic presence to feed that international network," Continental CEO Larry Kellner said during the airline's earnings call in January. "We wouldn't want to decline in the domestic market as we grew in the international market."......... Find an airline international ticket /cheap airfares home